Morning Coffee: Citi's M&A bankers aren't categorically great under Vis Raghavan. The fine parties in private credit

Vis Raghavan is the newish leader of Citi's investment bank. He came from JPMorgan, and he's hired a lot of people from JPMorgan, plus a few from elsewhere for good measure, and Citi CEO Jane Fraser is pleased with him. Raghavan is one of Fraser's marquee hires. She was particularly pleased to see him playing a collaborative game of table tennis with Andrew Morton, who runs Citi's markets business, at a recent management offsite. 

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But for all his collaboration and promises to "work wonders" for Citi's investment bank, the Financial Times notes that Citi's M&A business isn't doing so well under his management. On one measure, it's doing the worst for 11 years.

While Goldman Sachs' share of completed M&A deals is at its highest level for almost 25 years, at 34% of the market measured in terms of deal value, the FT notes that Citi's share of M&A deals by value has shrivelled to 13.6%, down from 17% last year. 

It's not all bad. Citi's share of completed deals is simultaneously up to 4.8%, which is apparently 'the best it's been since 2015.' However, 4.8% is not a number to boast of, and it implies that many of the deals that Citi begins working on don't make it over the line.

What's up with Citi's M&A business in 2025? It might be a question of mix. In 2024, Citi's key sectors for M&A were industrials, energy and natural resources and technology. Some of the big deals that Goldman's done are in areas like biotech, where Citi is less strong. However, Goldman's success in take private deals (it worked on the $55bn take-private of video games maker Electronic Arts), is the sort of thing might Citi aspire to do under Achtinya Mangla and his financing group.

Citi's M&A shrivelling might also be down to disruption. Some of Citi's most senior bankers have left under Raghavan's reign: Phil Drury, the former head of TMT, quit in July; JPMorgan hired Citi's finest sponsors banker Anthony Diamandakis and others. At the same time, some of Raghavan's self-confessedly "cheap" hires have raised eyebrows among colleagues. 

Or it might simply be because M&A bankers take a while to bed down. M&A is a long term business, and it takes a while for M&A bankers to become productive. Just ask Ken Moelis, who regularly opines on the need for patience. 2026 could be Vis Raghavan - and his M&A bankers' - year. If not, a lot more table tennis may be required to smooth things over.

Separately, if you're looking for a good party in the darkening days of the year, try hanging around with private credit professionals. 

The Wall Street Journal notes that Blue Owl, a private credit firm which not so long ago was lending money to Sarah Lee Frozen Bakery, but which has since reinvented itself as a big source of financing for multibillion dollar data centres, has been holding celebrity gatherings reminiscent of banks circa 2007.

In these more sober days they're not known as parties but as "retreats." Blue Owl has had all the most shiny people at them: Pharrell Williams and Serena Williams were in attendance; David Guetta was the DJ.

Banks, which have been warning about the cockroaches in private credit, are seemingly not invited, but obliged to "keep dancing." The WSJ notes that David Solomon, the Goldman Sachs CEO and probable David Guetta fan, has both warned of the dangers of the AI infrastructure bubble and formed a new AI infrastructure financing group.

Meanwhile...

Portfolio managers can be weird about losing money. One trader wouldn’t allow himself to eat sushi—his favourite food—as punishment for three days of losses. Hedge fund coach Dave Popple says they're a special sort of person: “They are the rare overlap of leaky attention, which allows them to pick up signals others miss, and strong discipline and willpower.”  (WSJ) 

Colm Kelleher has been wondering about moving UBS's head office to the US. (Financial Times) 

Deutsche Bank is targeting around €2bn in cost savings in a three-year strategy. (Financial News) 

Deutsche Bank wants to provide €900 billion of sustainable-linked financing for the period running from 2020 to the end of 2030. (Bloomberg) 

Bankers are crazy about their 'numbers:' "They are way more than will ever be spent in retirement, and they usually demand another five years of full-time work." (Alphaville)

The nightmare of being a consultant (for Deloitte). "She would leave home at 4 a.m. for client sites and return around 1 a.m.—a routine she maintained for months." (The 420) 

Barclays appointed Jean-François Mastrangelo from SocGen head of APAC markets. (The Trade) 

Companies lay people off by text so that they can make cuts, “as quickly as possible across a large swath of the employee population” to help control the message and limit stress on workers." (WSJ)  

Goldman Sachs MD Lizzie Dove used to be a stand-up comedian but she doesn't seem very funny. . "Landing a joke with confidence in a concise way and communicating with ease in front of a crowd were invaluable lessons that I use every day." (Business Insider) 

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